Global sales of light duty (LD) PEVs reached nearly 2.5 million in 2019 with a sales growth of 30% compared to 2018. In 2020, however, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a decline in both the LD PEV market and the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market. In North America, LDV sales are expected to decrease by 20% from 2019 levels – but, for LD PEVs, the North American market is expected to see just a 5% decrease. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @WeAreGHInsights, under a base scenario, North American LD PEV sales are expected to grow to nearly 2.7 million by 2030, representing about 13% of total LDV sales and a reduced long-term market share.
“Despite economic impacts to the LDV market, PEVs are proving to be a resilient vehicle market segment in some regions of the world,” says Raquel Soat, research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “The wealthier consumer base that currently purchases PEVs is likely to experience fewer impacts from the economic recession and still consider purchasing a vehicle, whereas other consumers may have to put their purchasing plans on hold.”
The LD PEV forecast also takes into account short-term fuel price drops and lower than anticipated demand for electric powertrains in North America relative to other global regions. Overall, North American LD PEV sales forecasts range from 2.3 million to 2.8 million in 2030 from the conservative to aggressive scenarios, while PEV population forecasts range from 11.2 million to 15.3 million.
The report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast – North America, analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on a national, state/province, and sub‑state/province level. Guidehouse Insights employs the Guidehouse Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST) to create three forecast scenarios. The forecasts include passenger car (PC) and light truck (LT) breakouts, as well as powertrain breakout by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs). Additionally, the report includes charging port forecasts by residential and nonresidential use cases on a national and state/province level. All forecasts have a conservative, base, and aggressive scenario. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.
About Guidehouse Insights
Guidehouse Insights, the dedicated market intelligence arm of Guidehouse, provides research, data, and benchmarking services for today’s rapidly changing and highly regulated industries. Our insights are built on in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research, and demand assessment, paired with a deep examination of technology trends, to provide a comprehensive view of emerging resilient infrastructure systems. Additional information about Guidehouse Insights can be found at www.guidehouseinsights.com.
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* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast – North America, is a summary and reflects the current expectations of Guidehouse Insights based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Guidehouse Insights nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.